September 24, 2003

Jeremy Lott Still Predicts ...

Jeremy Lott Still Predicts Gray Davis: And he quotes me generously in the process, in a column for The American Spectator. I think it depends on the size and strength of the anyone-but-Cruz campaign, on which more tomorrow. You won't have to go looking too hard for your ironies.

Posted by at September 24, 2003 12:49 AM

Well, I think it's Arnold's to lose. I say this not so much because I predicted he would win way back on July 7 (and I have to stick by my prediction!), but because I simply don't see how Gray can get those additional percentage points his way to bring the yes vote below 50%.

As for question two, I think Bustamante may have already peaked, and this Indian casino suit he just lost will probably have an impact. Arnold, despite all the hits he's taken for skipping the first few debates, has stayed within striking distance of Bustamante. If he excels in tonight's debate, which about 70% of likely voters that PPIC surveyed consider important in making their selection (suggesting to me that they want to see how Arnold stacks up with the rest), he'll have a good chance of pulling ahead.

If such is the case, it might not matter whether McClintock drops out, though he might feel pressured to exit if Arnold does, in fact, show competence and surges.

Posted by: Robert Tagorda at September 24, 2003 09:30 AM
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