Return of the Warblog

Matt, it seems to me there is a lot of "glass-half-empty" viewpoints about Arnold. Richard, for instance, fixing as usual on his long-standing mantra that California Republicans are idiots, is all but proclaiming victory for Cruz Bustamante, apparently hinging his prediction on conservatives insisting on voting for Simon and McClintock.

I supported, and voted for, Simon in the last election. As it turned out, Simon ran one of the worst campaigns in California history, and still managed to lose by a touch more than 300,000 votes, far better than anybody expected him to do, and, in fact, far better than GWB did against Al Gore.

That said, I'm behind Arnold all the way. I like tough, smart legal immigrants who've proved their creds by making a huge bundle after starting out broke. Especially when that bundle makes it a reasonable certainty Arnold won't have to whore himself to every special interest dragging a hundred dollar bill through the legislative trailer parks of Sacramento. And even more especially when this particular legal immigrant has a following among Hispanics that may be as large - or even larger - than that of Bustamante himself.

I blogged this first poll because it was the first poll, not because I think it means anything. Let's see what things look like six weeks down the road, after the big money machines have had a chance to roll into action. That said, Arnold may only be polling 25% right now, but that is still almost twice as high as what that guy in second place can scrape together. That guy named Cruz Bustamante.

The most shocking thing I found in the poll, by the way, was that in a head to head against DiFi, she only beats him 22-20 percent.

Bill -- I know jack-all about polls (or Sacramento for that matter ... whoops!), but I was just expecting Arnold to be more around 40, and Bustamante at 10 in the best case. And, there's been a hell of a lot of sniping at Arnold from the right, and I only expect that to increase.

Next week's poll might be even more significant: suppose Arnie's campaign plays like a movie too, which case its all on the opening, and all downhill from there.

None of the (admittedly few) actual voters I've spoken to buy Arnie one bit - and they cover both left and right of the spectrum now. I was most surprised yesterday talking with someone who "thought Regan was liberal", convinced Arnie is full of guff, and is backing Simon. Wishes McClintock would drop out.

A recall on Davis gives many Democratic voters a reason to come out this time; those who stayed away in droves in October because they could not bring themselves to vote for Joe. I don't think Republicans can say the same - they had an ideal chance to dump him in October but could not, and I just don't believe there were so many stay-at-home Goppies with chances so good.

I'm not shocked by Bustamante's standing. You have to remember that maybe 40 percent of the electorate is going to vote for a Democrat no matter what. That gives Bustamante a pretty good shot, even among people who've never heard of him.

One thing to remember here: they usually try to only poll "likely voters." Arnold's best hope is to bring out a lot of "unlikely voters" on Oct. 7. It's the same reason the polls didn't predict Jesse Ventura's victory.

In my highly unscientific "poll" of 6 people in Tracy, California last week, all 6 said they consider Arnold a serious candidate, and 4 said they were leaning toward voting for him. Two were Feinstein Democrats, one was a Republican who voted for Simon in November, and one was an apolitical 19-year-old who said Arnold was a better choice than "the usual old men" who run for office.

Richard, for instance, fixing as usual on his long-standing mantra that California Republicans are idiots, is all but proclaiming victory for Cruz Bustamante, apparently hinging his prediction on conservatives insisting on voting for Simon and McClintock.

Yo, Bill, how many statewide offices are held by Republicans? And how many seats in the legislature? And how many Cauli-for-knee-ans are pro-choice?

Do the math, dude.