now which information is important, and which info is fluff.

That was James' real genius. Not that he put together the numbers....it was that he knew which numbers to put togehter.

Posted by: michael at June 25, 2003 06:41 AM

There's also this post from Blissful Knowledge.

Posted by: "Mindles H. Dreck" at June 26, 2003 02:32 PM

You have to read "Money Ball" to really get it. All the guy did was apply the same data analysis he used to trade U.S. Treasuries. Meaning he collected facts relevant to WINNING baseball games. What he discovered is that on base percentage means far more than batting average; acutally winning games is more important for a pitcher than his "appearance"; meaning tall, lean, arm strength, and weight to height. Okland pitchers aren't getting sick, aren't having arm problems. They win.

Oakland promptly hired some fat guys who could get on base. Guys, who it turned out could hit like hell, but knew the strike zone so they walked a lot (this puts big pressure on opposing pitchers to throw strikes). He signed pitchers who had winning records with 87 mph fastballs. It turned out that these guys also had vicious sliders, unreadable change ups, screwballs, cut fast balls, two and three seamers, and various other "stuff" that actually wins games.

It is similar to soccer fields in Cuba only in that data was ignored by most. It is EXACTLY like bond analysis in that only factors actually relating to the rise or fall in bond prices were considered. All the popular "charting", RSI, T-Note/T-Bill spread differentials and so on were never considered by Bean.

I'm glad he is successful. BTW Toronto is doing exactly the same thing and is just three games back of the $200 million payroll Yankees. They have young pitching and some guys nobody wanted hitting like hell.

I'm also thinking that the NFL is full of it also. Why else would Curt Warner hae been warming benches and playing Arena League?

Posted by: Howard Veit at June 28, 2003 09:03 AM
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